![]() ![]() Asa Hutchinson is the most likely to drop out first. Monica Potts: Sorry to my fellow Arkansan, but I think former Gov. Nrakich: Easy for you to say, Monica - you’ve got the first pick! Who ya got? Geoffrey.skelley ( Geoffrey Skelley, senior elections analyst): No doubt we’ll nail this exactly. The person who correctly picks the first candidate to drop out, whenever that may happen, shall be declared the winner.The first-round order, as determined by, will be Monica, then Geoffrey, then Nathaniel and finally Elliott. ![]() You will have two picks each, and we’ll do a □ draft, so the person who picks last in the first round will pick first in the second round.You must choose from among the 11 Republican candidates that FiveThirtyEight considers “major.” No fair predicting that former Montana Secretary of State Corey Stapleton - who, yes, is running for president - is going to drop out.Today, we’re holding FiveThirtyEight’s first 2024 Dropout Draft to answer that question! Each player will pick who they think will be the first candidate to drop out and make the case for him or her. This year, who might that (un)lucky first (ex-)candidate be? In 2012, the first major Republican to drop out ( former Minnesota Gov. In 2020, the first major Democratic candidate to drop out of the race ( Rep. Nrakich ( Nathaniel Rakich, senior elections analyst): It’s not too early to think about which candidates might drop out of the 2024 Republican presidential primary soon. ![]()
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